Throughout the first two-thirds of 2023, China and India have indulged in thriving trade, totalling 619.69 billion yuan ($84.49 billion), showing a 5.2 percent increase year-on-year. These figures are based on data provided by the General Administration of Customs of China.
This ascending trajectory in trade is evident in China gradual export growth to India, which surpassed 533 billion yuan within this period, exhibiting a 5.2 percent rise from the prior year. Parallelly, procurements from India during these initial eight months achieved 86.69 billion yuan, indicating a 5.7 percent surge year-on-year.
Monthly Monetary Momentum
In the month of August alone, the bilateral trade between these two nations reached a remarkable figure of 82.74 billion yuan, reflecting a promising upswing from the 82 billion recorded in July.
Despite multiple measures implemented by India to curtail Chinese investments and restrict Chinese firms, the escalating trade figures illustrate the deep-rooted economic interdependencies between these Asian giants.
Protectionism vs. Globalization
India recent policies reflect an attempt to mold itself into a global manufacturing epicenter, by implementing a range of protectionist measures targeted against Chinese investments and businesses. However, according to Liu Zongyi, secretary-general of the Research Center for China-South Asia Cooperation at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, these actions are more about satisfying domestic nationalist sentiments rather than strategic economic restructuring. Liu argues that "in the context of globalization, this is difficult to achieve and uneconomic."
Trade Trends and Projections
Interestingly, the protectionist approach has not led to a decrease in business with China but the opposite. The year-on-year growth attests to the urgent need of Indian companies for Chinese products. In 2022, the trade between the two nations hit an all-time high of $135.98 billion, crossing the $100 billion mark for two consecutive years. China-India trade correspondingly exceeded 905 billion yuan the same year.
It predicted that with the arrival of major traditional Indian festivals in the latter half of the year, the demand for Chinese products will spike, possibly leading this year bilateral trade to outdo the previous record, with projections suggesting potential figures surpassing $120 billion in dollar terms.
